The escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel has had a significant impact on the price of PTA (purified terephthalic acid) raw materials, mainly reflected in the cost-push effect brought about by the rise in crude oil prices and the market's concerns about supply chain disruptions. The following is a major analysis of the impact of the conflict on PTA prices:

Rising crude oil prices drive up PTA costs

The Middle East geopolitical conflict (especially involving Iran and Israel) has led to a sharp rise in international oil prices. Since Iran is an important oil producer, the market is worried that its oil facilities may be hit or the Strait of Hormuz may be blocked, thereby affecting global crude oil supply.

PX (paraxylene), the main raw material of PTA, is highly correlated with crude oil prices. The rise in crude oil directly pushes up PX costs, which in turn is transmitted to PTA prices. From June 12 to 18, PX spot prices rose 8.87% and PTA spot prices rose 7.21%.

PTA is supported by costs in the short term, but fundamentals are weakening

Although rising crude oil prices have driven up PTA prices, PTA's own fundamentals are weakening. On the supply side, the operating rate of PTA units rebounded to 83%, while downstream polyester demand declined due to the off-season, with polyester load falling to 90.9% and terminal weaving operating rate falling to 68%.

The market expects PTA to shift from destocking to accumulating inventory, but PTA prices will remain supported in the short term due to the crude oil premium caused by geopolitical conflicts.

Market sentiment and future uncertainty

If Iran further blocks the Strait of Hormuz, global crude oil supply may be severely restricted, and oil prices may soar to US$120-130 per barrel, which will further push up PTA costs.

But if the conflict eases and crude oil prices fall, PTA may be under pressure due to weak supply and demand fundamentals.

Impact of downstream industries

The prices of downstream products such as polyester filament have risen with PTA, but the production enthusiasm of terminal weaving companies has been suppressed due to high costs and poor sales, resulting in a "price-free" market.

The conflict between Iran and Israel will support the PTA market in the short term by pushing up crude oil prices, but the supply and demand structure of PTA itself is weakening, and future price trends will depend on geopolitical evolution and fluctuations in the crude oil market. Investors need to pay close attention to the situation in the Middle East and changes in crude oil supply.