Introduction: Since 2021, affected by the economic downturn, polyester filament factories have proactively controlled their inventory after the high inventory cycle ended. Following the National Day holiday this year, polyester filament saw another concentrated destocking, with mainstream factories' inventory pressure dropping to around 10 days, bringing industry inventory to a recent low and providing short-term support for polyester filament prices.

However, questions have arisen regarding this destocking: Why are filament factories able to quickly reduce inventory when the fabric sector, where some market participants operate, has performed poorly? Is demand truly so optimistic? To address these questions, we conducted a brief market survey based on the performance of different weaving markets and order situations.

Under the dual influence of supply and demand and costs, the outlook for polyester filament is initially positive but then cools down.

I. Differentiated performance in different weaving market segments, with uneven demand.

Significant differences in demand across different weaving sub-markets directly impact the purchasing power of polyester filament.

1. Water-jet loom market: Currently concentrated in Changxing, Zhejiang, primarily weaving hydrophobic fibers. Corresponding fabrics are mostly blended fabrics such as bed sheets and curtains, chemical fiber fabrics, and industrial fabrics. There is no obvious seasonal demand, and the market performance is stable.

2. Warp knitting machine market: Presents a "hot and cold" pattern.

Changle warp knitting market: Mainly producing mesh fabrics, lace fabrics, and plain weave fabrics. Products are mostly used in clothing, shoes, hats, wedding dresses, and underwear. There is no significant demand in autumn and winter, and current demand performance is flat.

Changshu warp knitting market: In addition to mesh fabrics and sandwich mesh fabrics, it also produces coral fleece, polar fleece, and other fleece fabrics. These fabrics are widely used in toys, home decoration, and autumn and winter clothing, meeting current seasonal demand, and the market activity is relatively high.

3. Xiaoshao circular knitting machine market: Mainly producing elastic fabrics, air-layer fabrics, Roma fabrics, and non-pilling fleece, etc. Products are mostly seasonal autumn and winter fabrics, supported by orders, becoming an important driving force on the current demand side.

II. Explosive Growth in E-commerce Orders for Autumn/Winter Fabrics: A Core Driver of Inventory Reduction

The key to reducing polyester filament inventory after the National Day holiday lies in the surge in orders for autumn/winter fabrics, exhibiting three main characteristics:

1. Orders Concentrated in Specific Areas: Orders for fleece fabrics, such as those from Changshu warp knitting and Xiaoshao circular knitting machines, are booming, with companies generally receiving orders until the end of November, and some even extending to early December. However, the overall performance of conventional fabrics is generally average, with fleece products with higher polyester F-counts showing better sales.

2. E-commerce Demand as the Main Driver: The launch of the Double Eleven e-commerce platform activities on October 20th led to a surge in domestic e-commerce demand, directly driving the procurement of autumn/winter fleece fabrics. Export orders, however, performed moderately and did not significantly contribute to inventory reduction.

3. Order Heat Showing Signs of Weakening: From November 4th to 5th, the trend of this concentrated order surge began to weaken. Market concerns are that, due to year-end funding pressures and continued demand, companies will likely stockpile raw materials in line with their order cycles, continuing until the end of November or early December.